Market Predictions

Predicting market moves is notoriouslly difficult, but I’m feeling pretty good about my recent efforts.
On October 11, 2008, I stoped being a permabear and said, “the market as a whole now seems to me to be fairly valued.” The S&P 500 closed the previous Friday just below 900; today it closed at 919.32. In the fear that abounded last October, it was a hard call to be even that bullish, bit it seems to have worked out.

On June 2, I said we were near a market peak/ The S&P 500 closed that day at 944.74, and is currently down 3% almost a month later, having only bearly exceeded that number by a fraction of a percent.

Since I’m currently short-term bearish, I’ve started a series of articles not to by now, but to buy when a market decline puts them back on sale. Here are may clean enrgy shopping list articles so far:

  • Transmission stocks
  • Energy Efficiency Stocks
  • Clean Transport Stocks
  • Why market timing makes sense
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    Ethanol, Cellulosic Ethanol, and Advanced Biofuels

    Last week, I attended the 2009 Fuel Ethanol Workshop and the Advanced Biofuels Workshop, writing two articles.  The first is a commentary on what the corn ethanol industry needs to do to rehabilitate its image, and the second looks into how the stock investor can benefit from emerging advanced biofuel, cellulosic ethanol, and
    algae technologies.

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    Renewable Energy and Grid Integration Strategies Compared

    Here is a comparison of the costs of various renewable electricity generation technologies, based on a California transmission study.

    Similarly, I also recently wrote two articles comparing the costs of various grid integration strategies: Electricity Storage such as Batteries, Thermal Storage, Compressed Air, and Pumped Hydropower, as well as Demand Response, Smart Grid, and Transmission. Both have some charts allowing visual comparison of the technologies.

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    Solar Stocks

    In May, I went to Solar 2009.

    One panel I attended led to a series of articles on Solar stocks:

  • The outlook for solar stocks
  • Why First Solar (FSLR) is a risky bet.
  • Why Solar Millenium may have what it takes.
  • I also particpated, with presentations on the best incentives for solar investments, and with an analysis of large scale electricity storage, as well as alternative renewable electricity integration strategies.

    Charles also attended, and took a look at the implications of the removal of the $2000 cap on the residential Investment Tax Credit.

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    Portfolio Performance Updates 2009

    My Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2009 has been beating the market and the clean energy sector handily, although the riskier Ten Clean Energy Gambles for 2009 has only been performing in-line with the sector
    John Peterson’s cautious approach to the energy storage sector ("Cheap before Cool") has also been performing well.

    In tough economic times, it goes to show that playing it conservative pays off, even when the clean energy sector is getting a political boost.

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    Concentrating Solar Power: An In-Depth Look

    I recently interviewed several industry participants and research scientists about Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and associated thermal storage. 
    Several articles came out of these interviews:

    Why Concentrating Solar Power Should not Try to be Coal

    The Solar Projects that Won’t be Built

    What the Future of Concentrated Solar Power Might Look Like (This one made the folks at Ausra uncomfortable, and so they asked to respond.)

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    WillYouSacrificeUs?

    Chevron’s willyoujoinus campaign rubs me the wrong way.  What is the message here?

    • I will use less energy
    • I will bike to work 3 days a year.
    • I will leave the car at home more.
    • I will use solar power.
    • I will reuse things more.

    To me, this seems to be saying:

    1. Taking small steps is enough (3 days a year!!!?)
    2. Sacrifice is required (leave the car at home, use less energy, spend a lot on solar panels.)

    These types of messages undermine energy efficiency.  There are many ways to save energy which don’t involve inconvenience, and help your bottom line.  For instance, you can now buy a power strip for your TV or computer which switches off all the peripherals when the main electronic device is switched off.  If you just set it up to turn off your VCR and DVD players when the TV is off, that will probably be a savings of 50 watts.  If the TV is off 18 hours a day vor a year, that’s over 330 kW, or a savings of about $60 in the Northeast, $47 in California, or $33 in Colorado… but the powestrips cost only $25-$40, depending on which version you get… more than a 100% return in one year.

    Saving energy does not need to be about sacrifice.  I ride the bus out of choice… I’m less likely to get in an accident, and I can get work or reading done in the process.  One day they were doing maintenance on the standard diesel that serves my route, and instead the bus was one of the newer hybrids.  The ride was much smoother… so RTD saving energy by using a hybrid not only saved the transit district money, it made the passengers more comfortable.

    Energy Efficiency is a win-win.  When Chevron equates it to sacrifice, everyone loses.

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    ARRA Symposium notes, March 10 2009

    I’ll be referencing these notes in an article to be published on AltEnergyStocks.com as What the ARRA Means for Clean Energy: One State’s Example on March 15th.

    Read the rest of this entry »

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    Casey Energy Opportunities

    For readers who found my comments about other stock analysts useful (Especially the one about Doug Casey) I’ve just published a review of Casey Research’s market newsletter Casey Energy Opportunities, which focusses on small energy companies, including alternative energy.

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    Renewable Energy Funds

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    Renewable Energy (and other) ETFs

    I’ve published an updated run-down of Clean Energy Exchange Traded Funds, as well as a look at those clean energy ETFs which have Exchange Traded options on them (and why you might care.)

    On the subject of ETFs, I was shocked when I took a closer look at Doubleshort and Ultra ETFs, and this led me to do a couple reshuffles of ETFs in my portfolio.

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    Peak Coal, Peak Oil: getting closer

    Clean Energy Action, a Boulder, Colorado based environmental orgnaization recently released a reoport on US coal supplies. Peak coal will happen in the lifetime of most people reading this.

    The credit crunch (explained here), has probably brought peak oil closer. Because of the current low oil price and low investment in exploration and production, I expect the oil price to spike when demand recovers.

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    Five Top 10 Lists for 2009

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    Investing in Obama’s Stimulus Plan

    Since Obama’s election, my partent Charles and I have been looking at what Obama’s refreshing attitude towards Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, combined with the credit crunch, will do for some of our favorite stocks… here are the highlights:

    Companies that may benefit from a solar glut

    How Oil prices affect Alternative Energy Stocks

    Emissions trading stocks under Obama

    What might happen to Solar Photovoltaic companies if consumers pull back

    Charles and I expect divened paying companies to come back into vogue. He has a few dividend paying alternative energy companies and I have a couple dividend paying energy efficiency companies to consider.

    I also revisited my list of Blue Chip Alternative energy companies to see which ones might benefit from the expected stimulus package, while Charles looked at Smart Grid stocks that might benefit from a stimulus package. One technology I’m betting on is Geothermal heat pumps.

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    Trading Strategy During Financial Freefall

    When the current crisis began with the fall of Lehman, I decided to get out of my most speculative and worst capitalized Renewable Energy companies, and I wrote a series of articles on each. Now, I’m looking exclusively at companies involved in energy efficiency technologies, and technologies which help customers shift their demand to when or where it is cheaper (smart grid and transmission.)

    Here’s an index to the articles on the stocks I sold:

    1. Held: UQM Technologies (UQM)
    2. Sold: Carmanah Technologies (CMHXF)
    3. Sold: Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
    4. Sold: Dynamotive Energy Systems (DYMTF)
    5. Sold: Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)
    6. Sold: VRB Power (VRBPF)
    7. Sold: Electro Energy, Inc. (EEEI)

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    AltEnergyStocks.com Endorses Obama

    My partners and I received a couple angry emails because of what I consider very well reasoned arguments as to why Barack Obama would be better on Energy and Climate than John McCain. It still shocks me that anyone interested in alternative energy investing would even consider this controversial. If they support McCain, they might not like the fact that their candidate isn’t the best on energy issues, but simply consider other matters more important.

    YouTube Removes Clip of McCain mocking tire inflation.

    It’s a crazy world we live in. In the first draft, we had found a video where McCain was shown deriding Obama’s advocacy for energy efficiency in the form of well-inflated tires, but it had been taken down by YouTube a day later. We had to settle for a news story talking about the McCain campaign and their tire guages, not McCain himself.

    On what grounds was it removed, I have to wonder? It was a public appearance of a public figure, so you would think that it would not have been removed on copyright grounds, but your guess is as good as mine. Does YouTube remove all videos of public figures making fools of themselves?

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    Votes for Clean Energy in Colorado

    I vote in Colorado, and we actually have more initiatives on the ballot than in California. Again, from the perspective of a voter primarily concerned about climate change and clean, renewable energy, here are the propositions that are relevant. (I’ll spare you my opinion on if eggs should be people.)

    Amendment 52 – Redirect severance tax revenues for road repairs. No.
    A quick look at who’s backing this thing is enough to convince me it’s crazy. See my article on Colorado Republicans.

    Amendment 58 – Ends a tax subsidy for the oil and gas industry. The saved money would be used to expand college scholarships, preserve wildlife habitat, support clean energy projects and help local communities deal with the impacts of oil and gas drilling. Yes.
    I looked into this in detail as Policy Committee Chair for the Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES), which endorses the bill. Naturally the oil and gas drillers want to keep thier subsidies, which is why you’ve probably seen more ads against it than for it. See A Smarter Colorado for the other side’s take.

    Boulder Initiative 1A. Yes. This would allow Boulder county to issue municipal bonds and use the proceeds for loans to help fund home energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements in residents’ homes. CRES has also endorsed this one, for pretty obvious reasons.

    And, of course, if you care about clean energy, you’ll be voting for Mark Udall and Barack Obama. I used to like John McCain, and once even voted for him in a primary… back when he was a maverick. Now he’s just old, and in the pocket of his party.

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    Votes for Clean Energy in California

    I’m not a California voter, but my father is, so he asked me my advice on the energy propositions. Here are the intiatives I see as affecting the clean energy global warming picture.

    Prop 1: High Speed Rail Bonds. Yes. Rail is the most efficient form of transport we have.

    Prop 7: Renewable Energy Generation Initiative Statute. Yes. This bill raises targets for CA’s RPS, but lowers the level of penalties for noncompliance. However, it does make the penalties slightly more enforcable. See CEERT for more details.

    Prop 10: Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Renewable Energy Bonds Initiative Statute. Nah. This bill would mainly subsidize conversion of vehicles to natural gas and subsidize natural gas transport infrastructure. This would be an improvement over gasoline, but is not renewable. It would also be a windfall for T Boone Pickens and his Pickens Plan. Clean Energy Fuels, a company which Pickens Controls (and I own some stock in) would be the greatest beneficiary… it’s also the primary funder.

    In addition, there are some worries that California would be subsidizing conversion of vehicles to natural gas, and then the vehicles would leave the state. If your main concern is global warming and energy security, however, natural gas vehicles would help both, no matter where they are in the country. But it is rather unfair to ask CA to subsidize the rest of the nation. I’d like this much better if it were a national initiative, rather than just California; the fairness issue bothers me most.

    My dad’s voting for Prop 10… but he’s more enthusiastic about natural gas vehicles than I am, and seems unfazed by the fairness issue.

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    Coloradans Can now recycle CFLs

    This from Geenprint Denver:

    Coloradans can now drop off used compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) and mercury-containing thermostats for free recycling at any Ace Hardware store in the state. The spiral shaped bulbs contain a small amount of mercury and should not be thrown away in the trash. CFLs are also accepted in Denver’s Household Hazardous Waste collection program.

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    Enery Efficiency And Utilities

    In addition to investing, I’m also a consultant for the Energy Efficiency Busisness Coalition for regulatory matters. This work has spawned a series of articles, looking into what it really takes to make an energy efficiency business work, and what constitutes progressive regulation. Here they are:

    Barriers to Selling Energy Efficiency

    There’s Much More to Energy Efficiency than Saving Money

    Demand Side Management Policies That Work

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