Predicting market moves is notoriouslly difficult, but I’m feeling pretty good about my recent efforts.
On October 11, 2008, I stoped being a permabear and said, “the market as a whole now seems to me to be fairly valued.” The S&P 500 closed the previous Friday just below 900; today it closed at 919.32. In the fear that abounded last October, it was a hard call to be even that bullish, bit it seems to have worked out.

On June 2, I said we were near a market peak/ The S&P 500 closed that day at 944.74, and is currently down 3% almost a month later, having only bearly exceeded that number by a fraction of a percent.

Since I’m currently short-term bearish, I’ve started a series of articles not to by now, but to buy when a market decline puts them back on sale. Here are may clean enrgy shopping list articles so far:

Last week, I attended the 2009 Fuel Ethanol Workshop and the Advanced Biofuels Workshop, writing two articles.  The first is a commentary on what the corn ethanol industry needs to do to rehabilitate its image, and the second looks into how the stock investor can benefit from emerging advanced biofuel, cellulosic ethanol, and
algae technologies.

Here is a comparison of the costs of various renewable electricity generation technologies, based on a California transmission study.

Similarly, I also recently wrote two articles comparing the costs of various grid integration strategies: Electricity Storage such as Batteries, Thermal Storage, Compressed Air, and Pumped Hydropower, as well as Demand Response, Smart Grid, and Transmission. Both have some charts allowing visual comparison of the technologies.

In May, I went to Solar 2009.

One panel I attended led to a series of articles on Solar stocks:

I also particpated, with presentations on the best incentives for solar investments, and with an analysis of large scale electricity storage, as well as alternative renewable electricity integration strategies.

Charles also attended, and took a look at the implications of the removal of the $2000 cap on the residential Investment Tax Credit.

My Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2009 has been beating the market and the clean energy sector handily, although the riskier Ten Clean Energy Gambles for 2009 has only been performing in-line with the sector. 
John Peterson’s cautious approach to the energy storage sector ("Cheap before Cool") has also been performing well.

In tough economic times, it goes to show that playing it conservative pays off, even when the clean energy sector is getting a political boost.

I recently interviewed several industry participants and research scientists about Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and associated thermal storage. 
Several articles came out of these interviews:

Why Concentrating Solar Power Should not Try to be Coal

The Solar Projects that Won’t be Built

What the Future of Concentrated Solar Power Might Look Like (This one made the folks at Ausra uncomfortable, and so they asked to respond.)

Chevron’s willyoujoinus campaign rubs me the wrong way.  What is the message here?

• I will use less energy
• I will bike to work 3 days a year.
• I will leave the car at home more.
• I will use solar power.
• I will reuse things more.

To me, this seems to be saying:

1. Taking small steps is enough (3 days a year!!!?)
2. Sacrifice is required (leave the car at home, use less energy, spend a lot on solar panels.)

These types of messages undermine energy efficiency.  There are many ways to save energy which don’t involve inconvenience, and help your bottom line.  For instance, you can now buy a power strip for your TV or computer which switches off all the peripherals when the main electronic device is switched off.  If you just set it up to turn off your VCR and DVD players when the TV is off, that will probably be a savings of 50 watts.  If the TV is off 18 hours a day vor a year, that’s over 330 kW, or a savings of about $60 in the Northeast, $47 in California, or $33 in Colorado… but the powestrips cost only $25-$40, depending on which version you get… more than a 100% return in one year.

Saving energy does not need to be about sacrifice.  I ride the bus out of choice… I’m less likely to get in an accident, and I can get work or reading done in the process.  One day they were doing maintenance on the standard diesel that serves my route, and instead the bus was one of the newer hybrids.  The ride was much smoother… so RTD saving energy by using a hybrid not only saved the transit district money, it made the passengers more comfortable.

Energy Efficiency is a win-win.  When Chevron equates it to sacrifice, everyone loses.

I’ll be referencing these notes in an article to be published on AltEnergyStocks.com as What the ARRA Means for Clean Energy: One State’s Example on March 15th.

The Energy Part of the ARRA Process in Colorado

Public Utilities Commission Role

• Eliminate barriers to regulated utilities participating… "will
  allow expedited review of applications filed to request financial incentives
  including ratemaking treatment"
• Encourage regulated utilities to seek funding
• Expect to be able to get more than our pro rata share of stimulus dollars
  – the fact that the bill was signed here is more than just symbolism
• Encourage utility partners to design and propose ARRA projects.
• Work with GEO to develop a unified, thematic approach to the CO ARRA
  proposal
• Section 410 – Gov must certify the alignment of earnings incentives to
  allow customers to use energy more efficienctly (was decoupling.) 
  Colorado did that last year, a docket I was involved in on behalf of the Energy
  Efficiency Business Coalition

Three Primary Portion of Funds

Money is expected on April 1; must be allocated within 18 months.  2010
construction req; 2012 completion requirement.

• State Energy Program – Approx $50M/$3.1B – EnergyStar Homes, Insulate
  Colorado, 
• Low income weatherization – $80M/$5B over 2 years (was $9M/yr, now
  $40M/yr)  More people qualify.
• Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block grants ??/$3.2B.  Created in
  ESA, but funded in ARRA.  Formula: 68% to cities and larger counties.
  12% to state energy offices. 16% for distribution to smaller cities and
  counties. 2% Tribal governments; 2% competitive.

Governor’s energy Office will attempt to help with

• Access to info – how to go about it
• Access to financing – address problems with upfront costs – work with
  lending institutions
• Access to services- Workforce development, certification, expansion to
  underserved areas.

Transparency and accountability 

• www.colorado.gov/energy/recovery
• www.colorado.gov/recovery
• www.recovery.gov

DOE Loan gaurantee $ have been sitting there for 2 years, and DOE cannot get
them out the door.  Energy Secretary Steven Chu has made a commitment to
getting that money flowing by May.  

Energy Star appliance money will be distributed formulaically to the states
to distribute..

Electric Generation

Karen Hyde- Xcel.Energy

• Sees opportunity as a market for other projects.  Market for small
  generation projects.  Geothermal, Hydro, Biofuels.  Can consider
  <30 MW projects as they come in.  Looking at CCS, CAES would
  probably partner for these.  Might also be some efficiency grants.

Mac McLennan – Tri-State Generation and Transmission

• Will spend considerable time on rurla development, forest management, and
  army corps of engineers, hydropower.
• In electric generation side, how do we break through barriers to accessing
  this money…. has hitrically been difficult.
• Advanced reaserch and demonstration – Biomass/Beetle kill wood fired
  generation.  Geothermal.  CAES on Eastern Plains.
• Fossil R&D – site characterization for geologic storage of carbon.

Nick Muller – Colorado Independent Energy Association (IPPs) 40 members

• Transmission is stuck… not consideration of regional needs. Funds need
  to go to stimulate coordinated transmission planning. Sec of energy has
  authority to use or authorize funds for improved transmission.  CIEA
  wants to target 4 corners area for export.

Electric Transmission

Anthony Montoya – Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) ($3.25B – already
moving)

• Two new authorities – Can now construct transmission solely ro renewable
  energy
• Can now borrow for that ($3.25B) - 
• Money must be repaid to Treasury, w/ interest; must be distinct from
  current projects
• Allows partnerships with other companies
• Must be in public interest, not adversely impact reliablity, or current
  ops, anc repay the loan.
• Must have a public process to identify how this program will be
  administered… comment going on through Apr 3 (wapa.gov)
• Time for statements of interest on projects. (also on www.wapa.gov)

Tom Carr, Western Interstate Energy Board (energy Arm of Western Governor’s
Association)

• Background- Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative – Identify Renewable
  Energy Zones in Western Area – Will have report in June.
• Conceptual plans for delivering those to markets working with WECC.
• New federal bill this week: (Ried) would advocate to have federal government
  designate REZ, and require interconnection-wide transmission planning. 
  Would likely include potential preemption/federal siting authority which
  might go to FERC.  National interest transmisson corridor

Robin Kittel – Xcel Energy

• Want an additional $1M added to existing study to use a flow-based
  methodology for calculating transmission capacity.  
• High Plains Express Project… currently in phase 2 of feasibility
  study.  WAPA might be able to participate financially ($100K)
• Beetlekill mitigation projects.
• Recently filed a number of transmission plans under SB 100 some of which
  might qualify for ARRA funding.

Ron Steinbach – Tri-State

• Smart grid demonstration grants- looking for demonstration project between
  interface of bulk transmission and distribution grids.
• Smart Grid opportunities at bulk level (see balancing authorities as key
  to this)
• taking a very cautious note towards transmission project… seemed
  defensive, rather than opportunistic
• Interested in training money for their aging transmission workforce.

Smart Grid Panel

TAKEAWAY- Utilities are more excited about upstream improvements in operating
efficiency than they are in customer efficiency.

Brian Iverson – Black Hills Corporation

• Has AMI pilot in Pueblo (Radio/Cellular hybrid), expect to be installing
  4000 meters per week. Will try to speed this up.  May be able to extend
  to more remote areas.
• Distribution automation: Enhancing communication with substations.

Brad Gaskill, Poudre Valley REA

• Has commitment to test or deploy smart grid.  Landis + Gyr combining
  2 way data of power + 2 way radio.
• Focus on large industrial customers.
• Was planning on 3 year rollout, may accelerate this to 18 months if
  stimulus money available.

Steve Catanach, Fort Collins Utilities

• Fort ZED.  Partnership with city, CSU, others.  ZED=Zero energy
  District. Goal- create energy independent zone.
• would like to use federal money to expand this, include smart metering and
  or storage and or dispatchable renewables.

Michael Carlson, Xcel Energy (spending most of his tiem on Boulder Smart Grid
City project)

• Started in 2006… at that time we thought the biggest challenge would be
  bringing others along.  but we still have questions about what it
  means. 
• Current goals: 1) Utility efficiencies, assest ops, asset life extn,
  recapaciatixing the infrastructure,. new assets and services.
• Substation optimization, and transparency seem transparent.  
• Don’t know: what sort of communication do we need?  We don’t need
  millisecond for reduced spinning reserve and enhanced reliability, but we do
  need second range.
• What are customer engagement models?  Have to prioritize
  communication?
• System transparencey is now wonted by consumers, but will this just be a
  short-term win?
• What is the role of the meter?  have big investment in AMR… should
  we abandon now for AMI?

DSM, EE, RE, Residential Sector, Commercial Sector, and Codes

Anderw Colosimo, Co Springs Utilities

• See many opps under energy audits, expanded rebate programs.  Claims
  to be looking at new renewable energy, but a SunEdison employee sitting next
  to me mentioned that they had just killed two SunEdison projects recently.

Terry Hall, Y-W Electric Assoc

• Y-W northeast part of the state.  2 customers per mile of line. 
  Irrigation largest class.  Summer load 135 MW/ winter 30
  MW.  
• DSM program focused on irrigation.  We control irrigation (DR) in
  shoulder months.  Will look at smartgrid moneys to expand this
  programs.

Seth Prtner, GEO

• Acting director of state’s weatherization program
• Will see significant growth.  Was $250M/year nationally up to
  $5M.  CO will spend about $50M/year.  Will move from 4K homes/year
  up to 10K/year.
• Core values of program- strong income qualification component.
• We intend to have strong informational push.

Sam Mamet, Colorado Municipal league 

• Overwhelmed… worried about sales tax in the tank.  Has doubts bout
  stimulus package, but inspired and in awe from the leadership and talent in
  this room.  In addition to being overwhelmed, I am in awe of the
  leadership and energy here.
• Legislature told us to implement EE codes last year, and I appreciate the
  help from GEO. 
• Stimulus package- telling local gov’ts to think big but act
  strategically.  concerned about too much money coming too
  quickly.  Energy block grants.  
• The opptys inn the stimulus package offer incredible oppties to partner
  that we may not have anticipated several years ago.  Consider
  partnering with other entities in your communities.  Don’t used shotgun
  approach.. if you’re serious about it, do it right.
• I want to be treated as a partner at the front end.
• Local gov’ts are excited about the opportunities because we’ve been
  leading by example. 

Jeff Ackermann, PUC Staff

• By mid 2009 all IOUs will have DSM programs approved.
• The stimulus money is great oppty, but there are also large challenges
• Challenges: participation levels – what if this happens faster than
  budgeted.
• Stimulus may increase naturally occurring DSM. Where to focus utility
  investment?  How to assess new potential after stimulus come and gone.
• Overlap between programs.  What is there are two rebates into same
  market?  Can we anticipate/coordinate with recovery money.
• Coordinate low income programs with new weatherization money.  PSCo
  will be working on 4000 homes… should utility investment just be added to
  the pool.  Are there any measures that fed money not targetting? 
  Should the money be held back to continue this effort after stimulus is
  gone?
• Market Transformation: Is this still a good utility investment?  Will
  markets now change faster than anticipated?  How do you measure market
  transformation?  who gets the credit?  
• Measurement at the ened of the day/Attribution becomes much more
  difficult.  
• Recovery money moves the sweet spot of where and how much ratepayer money
  should be dedicated?

Job Creation and Workforce Development

Carmen Rhodes, Front Range Economic Strategy Center

• Large portion of construction workers require years of training… need to
  replace retiring skilled workers.
• Apprenticeship programs.. canned speech.
• Proposed linkages – want to partner with employers, etc.
• need to get more people into the training pipeline, but need jobs for
  those apprentices while they are training and after.

Brad Collins ASES

Nancy McCallin, Colorado Community College System

• new educational grants are increasing, and so we will be able to do more
  training.
• there is money to restore funding in higher ed and K12… but these are
  one time moneys and so we don’t want to use them foe ongoing expenses.
• Enrollment is up 12%… laid  off workers enrolling in college.
• certification program for green builders
• Colorado center for excellent in renewable energy.(located at northeastern
  junior college)
• Training centeres in solar dia , wind nrel , SG – ft collins
• solar installer program
• 2 year RE program – 1st year on core knowledge; 2nd year on partnerships
  and skills.
• more programs than I can keep up with
• RRCC – environmental tech, solar PV, solar PV, Energy Audits, etc.

For readers who found my comments about other stock analysts useful (Especially the one about Doug Casey) I’ve just published a review of Casey Research’s market newsletter Casey Energy Opportunities, which focusses on small energy companies, including alternative energy.

I’ve posted an updated and more in-depth look at clean energy and renewable energy mutual funds. Also of interest may be an article on how actively managed clean and renewable energy funds compare to the passively manged/index variety.

I’ve published an updated run-down of Clean Energy Exchange Traded Funds, as well as a look at those clean energy ETFs which have Exchange Traded options on them (and why you might care.)

On the subject of ETFs, I was shocked when I took a closer look at Doubleshort and Ultra ETFs, and this led me to do a couple reshuffles of ETFs in my portfolio.

Clean Energy Action, a Boulder, Colorado based environmental orgnaization recently released a reoport on US coal supplies. Peak coal will happen in the lifetime of most people reading this.

The credit crunch (explained here), has probably brought peak oil closer. Because of the current low oil price and low investment in exploration and production, I expect the oil price to spike when demand recovers.

I went a little overboard with the top-10 lists this year (last year I only did two), but people seem to like them…

Ten Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Stocks for 2009

Ten Speculations for 2008 (Update)

Ten Great Clean Energy Investing Blogs

Ten Most Controversial Stories of 2008

Ten Speculative Clean Energy Stocks for 2009 (forthcoming, link will be broken until 1/12/09.)

Since Obama’s election, my partent Charles and I have been looking at what Obama’s refreshing attitude towards Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, combined with the credit crunch, will do for some of our favorite stocks… here are the highlights:

Companies that may benefit from a solar glut

How Oil prices affect Alternative Energy Stocks

Emissions trading stocks under Obama

What might happen to Solar Photovoltaic companies if consumers pull back

Charles and I expect divened paying companies to come back into vogue. He has a few dividend paying alternative energy companies and I have a couple dividend paying energy efficiency companies to consider.

I also revisited my list of Blue Chip Alternative energy companies to see which ones might benefit from the expected stimulus package, while Charles looked at Smart Grid stocks that might benefit from a stimulus package. One technology I’m betting on is Geothermal heat pumps.

When the current crisis began with the fall of Lehman, I decided to get out of my most speculative and worst capitalized Renewable Energy companies, and I wrote a series of articles on each. Now, I’m looking exclusively at companies involved in energy efficiency technologies, and technologies which help customers shift their demand to when or where it is cheaper (smart grid and transmission.)

Here’s an index to the articles on the stocks I sold:

1. Held: UQM Technologies (UQM)
2. Sold: Carmanah Technologies (CMHXF)
3. Sold: Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
4. Sold: Dynamotive Energy Systems (DYMTF)
5. Sold: Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)
6. Sold: VRB Power (VRBPF)
7. Sold: Electro Energy, Inc. (EEEI)

My partners and I received a couple angry emails because of what I consider very well reasoned arguments as to why Barack Obama would be better on Energy and Climate than John McCain. It still shocks me that anyone interested in alternative energy investing would even consider this controversial. If they support McCain, they might not like the fact that their candidate isn’t the best on energy issues, but simply consider other matters more important.

YouTube Removes Clip of McCain mocking tire inflation.

It’s a crazy world we live in. In the first draft, we had found a video where McCain was shown deriding Obama’s advocacy for energy efficiency in the form of well-inflated tires, but it had been taken down by YouTube a day later. We had to settle for a news story talking about the McCain campaign and their tire guages, not McCain himself.

On what grounds was it removed, I have to wonder? It was a public appearance of a public figure, so you would think that it would not have been removed on copyright grounds, but your guess is as good as mine. Does YouTube remove all videos of public figures making fools of themselves?

I vote in Colorado, and we actually have more initiatives on the ballot than in California. Again, from the perspective of a voter primarily concerned about climate change and clean, renewable energy, here are the propositions that are relevant. (I’ll spare you my opinion on if eggs should be people.)

Amendment 52 – Redirect severance tax revenues for road repairs. No.
A quick look at who’s backing this thing is enough to convince me it’s crazy. See my article on Colorado Republicans.

Amendment 58 – Ends a tax subsidy for the oil and gas industry. The saved money would be used to expand college scholarships, preserve wildlife habitat, support clean energy projects and help local communities deal with the impacts of oil and gas drilling. Yes.
I looked into this in detail as Policy Committee Chair for the Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES), which endorses the bill. Naturally the oil and gas drillers want to keep thier subsidies, which is why you’ve probably seen more ads against it than for it. See A Smarter Colorado for the other side’s take.

Boulder Initiative 1A. Yes. This would allow Boulder county to issue municipal bonds and use the proceeds for loans to help fund home energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements in residents’ homes. CRES has also endorsed this one, for pretty obvious reasons.

And, of course, if you care about clean energy, you’ll be voting for Mark Udall and Barack Obama. I used to like John McCain, and once even voted for him in a primary… back when he was a maverick. Now he’s just old, and in the pocket of his party.

I’m not a California voter, but my father is, so he asked me my advice on the energy propositions. Here are the intiatives I see as affecting the clean energy global warming picture.

Prop 1: High Speed Rail Bonds. Yes. Rail is the most efficient form of transport we have.

Prop 7: Renewable Energy Generation Initiative Statute. Yes. This bill raises targets for CA’s RPS, but lowers the level of penalties for noncompliance. However, it does make the penalties slightly more enforcable. See CEERT for more details.

Prop 10: Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Renewable Energy Bonds Initiative Statute. Nah. This bill would mainly subsidize conversion of vehicles to natural gas and subsidize natural gas transport infrastructure. This would be an improvement over gasoline, but is not renewable. It would also be a windfall for T Boone Pickens and his Pickens Plan. Clean Energy Fuels, a company which Pickens Controls (and I own some stock in) would be the greatest beneficiary… it’s also the primary funder.

In addition, there are some worries that California would be subsidizing conversion of vehicles to natural gas, and then the vehicles would leave the state. If your main concern is global warming and energy security, however, natural gas vehicles would help both, no matter where they are in the country. But it is rather unfair to ask CA to subsidize the rest of the nation. I’d like this much better if it were a national initiative, rather than just California; the fairness issue bothers me most.

My dad’s voting for Prop 10… but he’s more enthusiastic about natural gas vehicles than I am, and seems unfazed by the fairness issue.

This from Geenprint Denver:

Coloradans can now drop off used compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) and mercury-containing thermostats for free recycling at any Ace Hardware store in the state. The spiral shaped bulbs contain a small amount of mercury and should not be thrown away in the trash. CFLs are also accepted in Denver’s Household Hazardous Waste collection program.

In addition to investing, I’m also a consultant for the Energy Efficiency Busisness Coalition for regulatory matters. This work has spawned a series of articles, looking into what it really takes to make an energy efficiency business work, and what constitutes progressive regulation. Here they are:

Barriers to Selling Energy Efficiency

There’s Much More to Energy Efficiency than Saving Money

Demand Side Management Policies That Work